Predictions for Social Media's Role in Future Elections

Abstract

Since the dawn of Web 2.0 networking sites, social media has played an important role in transforming the landscape of political campaigning and voter engagements. Social media has been used by activists and politicians across the spectrum to mobilize, publicize and network for the electoral campaign. While there may be positive outcomes such as new alliances, or negative outcomes such as physical harm, the use of social media has fundamentally changed the rules of the political game. Drawing on a mixture of emergent and traditional research methodologies, three separate case studies will explore the bookend use of social media in recent elections in The Gambia, and analyse the importance of a constitutional referendum in the interim period. This paper also aims to understand some of the future evolutions, challenges and trends as social media continues to intertwine with the strategies of campaigners, social movements and politically engaged citizens. It is estimated that by 2020 over 1.43 billion people, out of a global online population of 3.3 billion, will be active users of social media from their device across the continent. Social media usage has transformed the spread of political news, and the development of grassroots accountability mechanisms, with mobiles also enabling rapid responses to perceived infringements. With the panoply of different platforms, this paper will discern how various political actors are adapting their strategies to the shifting sands of digital engagement, and what can be learnt from past campaigns. Moreover, how does social media impact other media, political parties, incumbency advantages or ethno-regional voting blocs? By combining the textual and network analysis of more conventional research methodologies, the third case study will present an analysis of user interactions with candidate profiles and institutional newsfeeds, a visualization of the structure of the political conversation, and an examination of the origins of the most viral news stories.

Keywords: social media, elections, political campaigning, voter engagement, grassroots accountability, digital strategies, case studies, future trends